page-loading-spinner
Image | The Energy-Less Recovery
The Energy-Less Recovery
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

There is such a tight correlation between energy use (specifically petroleum demand) and economic growth that it is almost unthinkable to suggest that one could actually have a recovery in the economy absent a recovery in petroleum demand.

But that’s what we are being asked to believe, if we put the results of two separate government reports together that both happened to come out today.  The first says that the US economy shrank by only 0.18% percent in the second quarter, or at an annualized rate of 0.7%.  The second says that oil demand in July retreated to a level last seen 13 years ago.

These do not make sense in the least, and one of them has it dead wrong.  You know where I am going with this already, don’t you?

Here’s the first:
The Energy-Less Recovery
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

There is such a tight correlation between energy use (specifically petroleum demand) and economic growth that it is almost unthinkable to suggest that one could actually have a recovery in the economy absent a recovery in petroleum demand.

But that’s what we are being asked to believe, if we put the results of two separate government reports together that both happened to come out today.  The first says that the US economy shrank by only 0.18% percent in the second quarter, or at an annualized rate of 0.7%.  The second says that oil demand in July retreated to a level last seen 13 years ago.

These do not make sense in the least, and one of them has it dead wrong.  You know where I am going with this already, don’t you?

Here’s the first:
Image | Housing and Wealth – Part II (Demand and Liquidity)
Housing and Wealth – Part II (Demand and Liquidity)
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson
Monday, September 28, 2009

Executive Summary

  • In the prior report, we covered housing supply and prices; in this one, we cover demand and liquidity.
  • Housing demand is easy to measure, but hard to predict.  The prime determinant of housing demand is jobs.
  • We are not likely to recover from our current unemployment slump for 5-10 years.
  • The “housing ATM” is not only broken, but operating in reverse, putting additional pressure on potential housing consumers.
  • Artificially low interest rates give us some temporary stability in the housing market – in exchange for an increased risk of future losses.
  • The Federal Reserve and federal government are the housing market.
  • Our nation is suffering from “stimulus addiction,” and the path of least resistance is to continue feeding the habit.
  • For the housing market to recover, the job market has to recover first.
  • These are all indications that our debt-based money system is seriously flawed.

We are covering housing at this time because it is one of the key determinants of whether or not our economy will enjoy a decent bounce or merely a false statistical recovery here.  As goes housing, so goes the economy.

Here we will focus on the US (primarily because I have good data for it), but the lessons and implications are virtually identical for other areas of the world.  Ireland, Spain, the UK and a number of other spots are in far worse shape by this measure than the US.

In the prior report, we covered housing supply and prices.  Here we are going to cover demand and liquidity
Housing and Wealth – Part II (Demand and Liquidity)
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson
Monday, September 28, 2009

Executive Summary

  • In the prior report, we covered housing supply and prices; in this one, we cover demand and liquidity.
  • Housing demand is easy to measure, but hard to predict.  The prime determinant of housing demand is jobs.
  • We are not likely to recover from our current unemployment slump for 5-10 years.
  • The “housing ATM” is not only broken, but operating in reverse, putting additional pressure on potential housing consumers.
  • Artificially low interest rates give us some temporary stability in the housing market – in exchange for an increased risk of future losses.
  • The Federal Reserve and federal government are the housing market.
  • Our nation is suffering from “stimulus addiction,” and the path of least resistance is to continue feeding the habit.
  • For the housing market to recover, the job market has to recover first.
  • These are all indications that our debt-based money system is seriously flawed.

We are covering housing at this time because it is one of the key determinants of whether or not our economy will enjoy a decent bounce or merely a false statistical recovery here.  As goes housing, so goes the economy.

Here we will focus on the US (primarily because I have good data for it), but the lessons and implications are virtually identical for other areas of the world.  Ireland, Spain, the UK and a number of other spots are in far worse shape by this measure than the US.

In the prior report, we covered housing supply and prices.  Here we are going to cover demand and liquidity
Image | Housing Market Update
Housing Market Update
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

The prior Martenson report on housing covered inventory (supply) and prices.  Lots of news has recently come out that I want to add to the story.  The breaking news in this area is coming a furious pace these days.

This first is an estimate of shadow inventory, and it’s something of a shocker.  Where I had suspected that inventory was being understated “by a few million,” I did not think that it was as high as 7 million.
Housing Market Update
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

The prior Martenson report on housing covered inventory (supply) and prices.  Lots of news has recently come out that I want to add to the story.  The breaking news in this area is coming a furious pace these days.

This first is an estimate of shadow inventory, and it’s something of a shocker.  Where I had suspected that inventory was being understated “by a few million,” I did not think that it was as high as 7 million.
Image | Jobless Claims Fall, Mass Layoffs Rise – Which Is Right?
Jobless Claims Fall, Mass Layoffs Rise – Which Is Right?
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

One of the harder things to do these days is to try and make sense of all the contradictory statements and data.

Earlier this week, we found out that mass layoff actions were up sharply in August.  But today we found out that unemployment claims have been trending down for months.  Which is right?  Can they both be right?

First, the mass layoff data:
Jobless Claims Fall, Mass Layoffs Rise – Which Is Right?
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

One of the harder things to do these days is to try and make sense of all the contradictory statements and data.

Earlier this week, we found out that mass layoff actions were up sharply in August.  But today we found out that unemployment claims have been trending down for months.  Which is right?  Can they both be right?

First, the mass layoff data:
Image | Decoding the Fed
Decoding the Fed
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

The Federal Reserve policy statement yesterday was a masterful blend of contradictory words and ideas.


Nonetheless, the markets reacted with great volatility to these words, as though there was some useful information within them.   You can read the entire statement for yourself here at this link. 


To save you the trouble, what I’ve done is chopped the whole statement up into smaller sections and translated them (with tongue in cheek, but only slightly):

Decoding the Fed
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

The Federal Reserve policy statement yesterday was a masterful blend of contradictory words and ideas.


Nonetheless, the markets reacted with great volatility to these words, as though there was some useful information within them.   You can read the entire statement for yourself here at this link. 


To save you the trouble, what I’ve done is chopped the whole statement up into smaller sections and translated them (with tongue in cheek, but only slightly):

Image | The Liquidity Flood
The Liquidity Flood
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

I don’t know what else to say at this point, other than that everyone had better be ready for massive inflation..

For the record, I do not ascribe to the simplistic views of “either/or” when it comes to the great inflation vs. deflation debate.  When I am asked about which outcome I favor, I say “yes.”

What I mean by this somewhat flippant comment is that I can easily envision some assets declining in price (worthless CDOs anyone?  McMansions?) even as I see other things rising dramatically in price.

I’ve alluded to this before, and now the evidence for a liquidity flood is presented below:
The Liquidity Flood
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

I don’t know what else to say at this point, other than that everyone had better be ready for massive inflation..

For the record, I do not ascribe to the simplistic views of “either/or” when it comes to the great inflation vs. deflation debate.  When I am asked about which outcome I favor, I say “yes.”

What I mean by this somewhat flippant comment is that I can easily envision some assets declining in price (worthless CDOs anyone?  McMansions?) even as I see other things rising dramatically in price.

I’ve alluded to this before, and now the evidence for a liquidity flood is presented below:
Image | Housing and Wealth – Part I (Supply and Prices)
Housing and Wealth – Part I (Supply and Prices)
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson
Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Executive Summary

Tracking the housing market helps us see where the economy is headed.  Two categories of data that are useful to focus on are house prices and housing supply.

House Prices

Measuring the value of housing is critical, because the amount of foreclosures and the economic fallout from them are both tightly linked to the difference between the current value of a house and the mortgage held on it.

Housing Supply

To appreciate housing supply, there are three things we need to track:

  • Total number of existing homes for sale (expressed in either a raw number or in “month’s supply,” which takes the raw number and divides it by the current sales pace)
  • Total number of new homes for sale (expressed the same as above)
  • Amount of “shadow inventory,” which are homes that are on the books of the banks but have not been released into the market for sale

This is Part I of a two-part report.

 
Housing and Wealth – Part I (Supply and Prices)
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson
Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Executive Summary

Tracking the housing market helps us see where the economy is headed.  Two categories of data that are useful to focus on are house prices and housing supply.

House Prices

Measuring the value of housing is critical, because the amount of foreclosures and the economic fallout from them are both tightly linked to the difference between the current value of a house and the mortgage held on it.

Housing Supply

To appreciate housing supply, there are three things we need to track:

  • Total number of existing homes for sale (expressed in either a raw number or in “month’s supply,” which takes the raw number and divides it by the current sales pace)
  • Total number of new homes for sale (expressed the same as above)
  • Amount of “shadow inventory,” which are homes that are on the books of the banks but have not been released into the market for sale

This is Part I of a two-part report.

 
Image | Treasury Purchases: Foreigners Can’t Get Enough
Treasury Purchases: Foreigners Can’t Get Enough
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Aside from a critically important family meeting I attended this weekend, I spent the rest of the time this weekend, and through today, working on the latest Martenson Report, which should be out by tomorrow morning at the latest.  The report will be on housing and where we stand with respect to prices, inventory, liquidity, and demand. In terms of where we are headed economically, housing ranks as one of the most vital issues of the day.
Treasury Purchases: Foreigners Can’t Get Enough
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Aside from a critically important family meeting I attended this weekend, I spent the rest of the time this weekend, and through today, working on the latest Martenson Report, which should be out by tomorrow morning at the latest.  The report will be on housing and where we stand with respect to prices, inventory, liquidity, and demand. In terms of where we are headed economically, housing ranks as one of the most vital issues of the day.
Image | Flow of Funds Analysis – Big Declines in Credit Market Debt (Except for Government)
Flow of Funds Analysis – Big Declines in Credit Market Debt (Except for Government)
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

The Flow of Funds report, covering the second quarter of 2009 (through June), was released today by the Federal Reserve.  It revealed yet another retreat in total credit, despite the heroic levels of state and federal government borrowing.

One of the better windows available into the macro credit and borrowing universe is a quarterly report put out by the Federal Reserve called the “Flow of Funds” report.   While it is a bit dated already (the report covers through the end of June), it is a great snapshot of the big trends and can tell us much about the general direction in which we are headed.  This report was released today (9/17/2009) at 12:00 p.m.

Here are a few of the fascinating findings…

Flow of Funds Analysis – Big Declines in Credit Market Debt (Except for Government)
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

The Flow of Funds report, covering the second quarter of 2009 (through June), was released today by the Federal Reserve.  It revealed yet another retreat in total credit, despite the heroic levels of state and federal government borrowing.

One of the better windows available into the macro credit and borrowing universe is a quarterly report put out by the Federal Reserve called the “Flow of Funds” report.   While it is a bit dated already (the report covers through the end of June), it is a great snapshot of the big trends and can tell us much about the general direction in which we are headed.  This report was released today (9/17/2009) at 12:00 p.m.

Here are a few of the fascinating findings…

Image | Another Huge Miss – Money Floods Out of the US in July
Another Huge Miss – Money Floods Out of the US in July
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

The Treasury International Capital data for July came out this morning, and it once again revealed a far larger outflow of money than anyone expected.

In fact, for a country borrowing as much as the US, anything less than a few hundred billion to the positive every month is a really big problem.  If you’ve been wondering why the dollar has been going down, here’s part of your answer….money is flooding out of the US.
Another Huge Miss – Money Floods Out of the US in July
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

The Treasury International Capital data for July came out this morning, and it once again revealed a far larger outflow of money than anyone expected.

In fact, for a country borrowing as much as the US, anything less than a few hundred billion to the positive every month is a really big problem.  If you’ve been wondering why the dollar has been going down, here’s part of your answer….money is flooding out of the US.
Total 1950 items
Image | Join Peak

Upcoming Peak Events
Food and The Great Awakening
January 10, 2025
Image | Peak Financial
Image | Proton Mail
Image | Big Red Button
Image | Crash Course 2.0 Now Available!
Image | Show Off Your Peak Pride!

Upcoming Peak Events
Food and The Great Awakening
January 10, 2025
Image | Join Peak

Daily Digest

Please login to submit a story to the Daily Digest.

View Past Daily Digests

Image | Peak Financial
Image | Proton Mail
Image | Big Red Button
Image | Crash Course 2.0 Now Available!
Image | Show Off Your Peak Pride!