page-loading-spinner
by Chris Martenson

When markets unravel big-time, the weakness almost always starts on the outside and moves inward towards the center.  We refer to this phenomenon using the phrase “from the outside in.”  For more of my thoughts on this concept, listen to my February 2009 podcast, also titled From The Outside In.

I’ve been keeping one eye on Greece’s debt situation for awhile because it fits the pattern…a weaker state begins to fail, the contagion spreads, and the next thing you know, the world financial markets are in a tailspin.  At least that’s the potential.

From The Outside In – PIIGS Update
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

When markets unravel big-time, the weakness almost always starts on the outside and moves inward towards the center.  We refer to this phenomenon using the phrase “from the outside in.”  For more of my thoughts on this concept, listen to my February 2009 podcast, also titled From The Outside In.

I’ve been keeping one eye on Greece’s debt situation for awhile because it fits the pattern…a weaker state begins to fail, the contagion spreads, and the next thing you know, the world financial markets are in a tailspin.  At least that’s the potential.

by Chris Martenson

Today the Commerce Department reported excellent economic news for January; retail sales climbed another 0.5%, the third gain in four months, and were up a hefty 4.7%, compared to a year ago.

U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Climb

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — January sales at U.S. retailers climbed more than anticipated, while consumer confidence unexpectedly fell this month from a two-year high, showing a recovery in household spending may be gradual.

Retail purchases increased 0.5 percent, the third gain in the past four months, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 73.7 from 74.4 the prior month.

Compared to January last year, sales were up 4.7 percent.

Unfortunately, somebody forgot to tell the states this excellent news, because their sales tax data for January is still miserable.

Fuzzy Numbers – Retail Sales
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Today the Commerce Department reported excellent economic news for January; retail sales climbed another 0.5%, the third gain in four months, and were up a hefty 4.7%, compared to a year ago.

U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Climb

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — January sales at U.S. retailers climbed more than anticipated, while consumer confidence unexpectedly fell this month from a two-year high, showing a recovery in household spending may be gradual.

Retail purchases increased 0.5 percent, the third gain in the past four months, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 73.7 from 74.4 the prior month.

Compared to January last year, sales were up 4.7 percent.

Unfortunately, somebody forgot to tell the states this excellent news, because their sales tax data for January is still miserable.

by Chris Martenson
Friday, February 5, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Recent economic news comes in three flavors: good, bad, and ugly.
  • GDP, retail sales, and manufacturing surveys point up.
  • Petroleum use has dropped to the same level it was at in the late 1990s, pointing down.
  • State sales tax receipts, unemployment, and the federal budget deficit are ugly.
  • The current expansionary track of monetary printing and deficit spending will continue until something external forces a contraction.

Today we are experiencing many confusing and conflicting signals in the economy.  Perhaps conflicting signals are normal at a major turning point, and therefore we might be tempted to believe that we are about to embark on another vigorous leg of economic expansion.

Here we’ll explore these conflicting signals and see what we can make of them.

Before we do, I want you to recall that I am of the opinion that the trillions of dollars (and yen, and euros, and rubles, and yuan, and so forth) will someday come racing out of their big-bank holding pens and ignite something that will look and feel just like an economic rally.  For a little while.  Then, raging inflation and an energy crisis will ensue.  Given this outlook, I view any economic respite from the decline, no matter how falsely derived, to be a gift of time, allowing us the opportunity to continue to build the economic, physical, and emotional resilience in our lives and the lives of those around us.

You should be using this time to get ready for the next period of adjustment, which I expect to be both longer-lasting and more profound than the previous one.

However, in terms of parsing our existing situation so that we can maintain an appropriate outlook on where we are and where we are headed, there is much to be gained by keeping a close eye on current economic statistics.

On The Other Hand…
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson
Friday, February 5, 2010

Executive Summary

  • Recent economic news comes in three flavors: good, bad, and ugly.
  • GDP, retail sales, and manufacturing surveys point up.
  • Petroleum use has dropped to the same level it was at in the late 1990s, pointing down.
  • State sales tax receipts, unemployment, and the federal budget deficit are ugly.
  • The current expansionary track of monetary printing and deficit spending will continue until something external forces a contraction.

Today we are experiencing many confusing and conflicting signals in the economy.  Perhaps conflicting signals are normal at a major turning point, and therefore we might be tempted to believe that we are about to embark on another vigorous leg of economic expansion.

Here we’ll explore these conflicting signals and see what we can make of them.

Before we do, I want you to recall that I am of the opinion that the trillions of dollars (and yen, and euros, and rubles, and yuan, and so forth) will someday come racing out of their big-bank holding pens and ignite something that will look and feel just like an economic rally.  For a little while.  Then, raging inflation and an energy crisis will ensue.  Given this outlook, I view any economic respite from the decline, no matter how falsely derived, to be a gift of time, allowing us the opportunity to continue to build the economic, physical, and emotional resilience in our lives and the lives of those around us.

You should be using this time to get ready for the next period of adjustment, which I expect to be both longer-lasting and more profound than the previous one.

However, in terms of parsing our existing situation so that we can maintain an appropriate outlook on where we are and where we are headed, there is much to be gained by keeping a close eye on current economic statistics.

by Chris Martenson

Here is a link to the streaming audio file of the Commonwealth Talk.  It’s also available for free by subscribing to their iTunes stream here.  A special thanks to Commonwealth Club, Climate One, and their excellent production team for hosting me and creating this podcast.  I encourage you to check out the Climate One blog and their Facebook page to view a brief video clip of the talk.

I want to share a few inside observations and experiences from the talk yesterday.

First, the Commonwealth Club was completely caught off guard by the response to my talk.  Their phone rang off the hook, they told me that some long-time members who couldn’t get in were very disappointed, and they even explored moving the other speaker to an off-site venue to free up their main room for me.

They couldn’t quite get that arranged, and so it didn’t happen, but the idea that I almost bumped Eliot Spitzer is both amusing and humbling.

Even knowing it was sold out, roughly 30 people showed up and waited to see if any stand-by slots opened up.  I went into their holding room, introduced myself, and spent some time there right before the talk, because I really wanted to meet everyone and it seemed such a shame to not be able to speak to everyone who wanted to hear me.

Reflections on Commonwealth
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Here is a link to the streaming audio file of the Commonwealth Talk.  It’s also available for free by subscribing to their iTunes stream here.  A special thanks to Commonwealth Club, Climate One, and their excellent production team for hosting me and creating this podcast.  I encourage you to check out the Climate One blog and their Facebook page to view a brief video clip of the talk.

I want to share a few inside observations and experiences from the talk yesterday.

First, the Commonwealth Club was completely caught off guard by the response to my talk.  Their phone rang off the hook, they told me that some long-time members who couldn’t get in were very disappointed, and they even explored moving the other speaker to an off-site venue to free up their main room for me.

They couldn’t quite get that arranged, and so it didn’t happen, but the idea that I almost bumped Eliot Spitzer is both amusing and humbling.

Even knowing it was sold out, roughly 30 people showed up and waited to see if any stand-by slots opened up.  I went into their holding room, introduced myself, and spent some time there right before the talk, because I really wanted to meet everyone and it seemed such a shame to not be able to speak to everyone who wanted to hear me.

by Chris Martenson

If you’ve watched Chapter 16 of the Crash Course (Fuzzy Numbers), you know that I am especially dismissive of the way in which the BEA calculates the US GDP figures.


All manner of statistical tricks, many of which would land private business accountants in jail, are used to create an overly optimistic view of the GDP.


Recently the US GDP was reported as being +2.2% for the 3Q09, and many are calling for 4Q09 to come in at around +3%.


This means that when we add these to the -6.4% 1Q09 and -0.7% 2Q09 results and average everything together, the full year will have been down less than half a percent.


Imagine that….with auto and home sales off by more than 10%, with port shipments down by some 20%, with gasoline and electricity use back to levels last seen in a prior decade, with unemployment over 10% (and the underemployed number at 17%), and with the largest-ever collapse in household borrowing on record….the BEA manages to come out with a full-year GDP report that will show an exceptionally modest decline of roughly one-half of one percent.

More Fuzzy Numbers – GDP Wildly Overstated
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

If you’ve watched Chapter 16 of the Crash Course (Fuzzy Numbers), you know that I am especially dismissive of the way in which the BEA calculates the US GDP figures.


All manner of statistical tricks, many of which would land private business accountants in jail, are used to create an overly optimistic view of the GDP.


Recently the US GDP was reported as being +2.2% for the 3Q09, and many are calling for 4Q09 to come in at around +3%.


This means that when we add these to the -6.4% 1Q09 and -0.7% 2Q09 results and average everything together, the full year will have been down less than half a percent.


Imagine that….with auto and home sales off by more than 10%, with port shipments down by some 20%, with gasoline and electricity use back to levels last seen in a prior decade, with unemployment over 10% (and the underemployed number at 17%), and with the largest-ever collapse in household borrowing on record….the BEA manages to come out with a full-year GDP report that will show an exceptionally modest decline of roughly one-half of one percent.

Total 1950 items