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Mixed Data; These Are Our Stories

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By davefairtex
January 8, 2023

Mixed Data; These Are Our Stories

Peak Insiders
By davefairtex on
January 8, 2023
21

There were two economic reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: +223k month over month (m/m) [prior +256k] (bullish) Durable Goods: New Orders -2.13% m/m, Shipments +0.19% m/m (bearish) My favorite section of payrolls that I use for detecting recession isn’t showing a clear signal of recession just yet; the FRED Series (LNS12032196) titled “working part-time for economic reasons/only part-time work available” did tick higher (which is bearish), but that’s coming off a 2.8-year low. See how the series (below) popped higher at the start of each prior recession? Note the red recession bars are only applied six months after the fact,

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https://babylonbee.com/news/experts-say-they-dont-know-what-thing-is-causing-everyone-to-suddenly-collapse-but-its-definitely-not-that-one-thing U.S. — Medical experts are absolutely stumped as to what could be causing the recent uptick in healthy, young people everywhere that are suddenly collapsing ...
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