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Invasion Thursday; Watch Prices

Original Content
102
By davefairtex
March 3, 2022

Invasion Thursday; Watch Prices

Original Content
By davefairtex on
March 3, 2022
102

So, the invasion I thought wouldn’t happen – happened last Thursday. The press, and the Biden-Handlers were simply overjoyed with this outcome. Out with COVID, In with Invasion! Yay distraction! The timing was impeccable. If the Biden-Handlers had planned the invasion themselves, I don’t think it could have possibly been better-timed.

[Totally unrelated – I remember Klaus Schwab saying that Putin was a Young Global Leader, or as they say in that article, Junger Globaler Führer]

The normal people in the Ukraine, I suspect, are substantially less happy than the MSM, or the Biden-Handlers, what with all the fear and death and destruction that comes with military action. While the Oligarchy [in every country] can always be whisked out on their private jets, the normal people are always the ones that get hurt.

Like the Biden-Handlers, by end of day Thursday, the risk markets were actually fairly happy too. President Grandpa tottered out in the early afternoon EST, and read the script written by his Handlers, playing his part in doling out punishments for Bad Vlad Putin. How did the markets react?

Well SPX rebounded sharply, as did crappy debt, while gold, silver, palladium, and crude all sold off. Why did the markets rally on this news?

The sanctions appeared to be carefully created by the Handlers to be mostly meaningless. It wasn’t a nothing-burger, but perhaps we could call it: a not-very-much-burger. Prices don’t lie. Crude & palladium are real markets. Russia produces a lot of both items. They both sold off on the news – both in advance of the news, and after the news was released also.
Market rule #1: when prices rebound on “bad news” (invasion, then sanctions, in this case) – it means the news wasn’t as bad as the market had feared.

Market rule #2: when prices sell off on “good news” (say, a good earnings report) – it means that the market had been counting on even better news.

Markets do this sort of thing all the time.


For the week, SPX rose +35.78 [+0.82%], printing a very strong bullish reversal pattern, managing to close back above the 9 MA. Is everything all better? Well, the weekly sector map looked bearish: sickcare [+2.63%], REITs [+2.57%] and utilities led [+2.01%], while discretionary [-2.16%] and financials did worst [-0.31%]. That’s a pretty bearish sector map. But the NYSE advance ratio is > 80%, which says this rally wasn’t just about a few big companies doing well, which is bullish. The VIX remains quite elevated, at 27. So, is this a low?

It is hard to say. I’m still on the fence. But I’m not short the market any longer.

The equity sector map provided some interesting clues. The high-yielding sectors did well. That’s either a flight to safety, or a subtle signal that a rate increase may be more gentle than previously anticipated. (Because – invasion! Can’t raise rates during a war, doncha know.) After all, the Biden-Handlers can now blame inflation – along with literally every other bad outcome – on Scapegoat of the Year. It’s really hard to know.

A rate increase now would probably cause some economic slowing that would hit right around election day in November. A war? Everyone knows, you don’t change horses in mid-stream.

As for the master resource – which Russia produces a lot of – crude also had a huge bearish reversal on Thursday; crude hit $100 intraday (at 05:20 AM EST) before reversing. By end of day, the trading range was $9, which is a very wide range. For the week, crude rose just +0.96 [+1.06%] to 90.83. At the close on Friday, crude remains above all 3 moving averages, although the weekly candle print looked fairly bearish. Is this a reversal for crude? I think not yet. But so far, the market isn’t pointing at worse news ahead.

Palladium is my other “war with Russia” severity indicator. That’s because Russia is the world’s largest producer of … palladium. On Thursday we saw a $400 trading range for the metal – another large bearish reversal. Palladium topped out at 08:25 AM EST, moved lower, and fell off a minor cliff at 14:20 EST. By Friday, palladium ended the week up just +10.54 [+0.45%]. The weekly candle print was definitely bearish. Palladium remains in an uptrend, but like crude, palladium was not impressed either.

Gold also had a wide trading range on Thursday, hitting 1978 (at 05:55 AM EST) before reversing; much of the drop happened right at market open – well before Grandpa and the “sanctions” he announced. Gold ended the week down -10.04 [-0.53%], at 1892.14. Gold remains in an uptrend, for now, but closed the week below the 9 MA. Could this be an interim high for gold? It could be.

The 10-year yield actually increased this week; it rose +8 bp to 2.00%. That’s not a “flight to safety sign.”

The buck did rally (+0.61% for the week), but is well down off the highs. Interestingly, the buck topped out at 11:00 AM EST, after which it retreated into the close; no idea why the dollar’s move wasn’t linked in time with the other instruments.

My sense from the pattern of activity: traders knew what was coming in advance, that it wasn’t going to dislocate the system, and either covered their (SPX) shorts, or sold (or shorted) the other items between 3-8 hours in advance of the sanctions announcement. If you watch prices, you can get a sense of what might be in store. Wall Street has the inside track, and they can’t help themselves from making money on it. And that shows up in the prices.

As I reflect back over the last few weeks – that’s also why I didn’t think there would be an invasion. Prices really didn’t look all that concerned. They still don’t. There was just the pop overnight on Wednesday/Thursday when the troops started rolling in.

And it occurs to me that – it is entirely possible that this war is a particularly evil form of theater. The “COVID lockstep” policies throughout the West, magnified by all the unnecessary death and the fear porn from the media, definitely had a theatrical element. All the nations with “Build Back Better” Young Global Leaders in charge, all had the same policies. They all overstated the pandemic, they all had “No Treatments For You” to maximize fear and death, cases were counted instead of hospitalizations, they all required “masks” (critical in 2020, useless today! Science!) that reminded everyone that we were in grave danger. After all, without masks, we might have forgotten there was a pandemic, and the fear might have subsided.

And now – with perfect timing – an invasion appears, right as COVID ends due to Omicron (sadly, acting like a vaccine), to take over the headlines and redirect the public’s attention and distract away from the vaccine disaster that is just a month or two away from hitting the headlines. If this wasn’t a deliberate construction, the timing is absolutely flawless.

There was a truckload of economic reports this week too – I’m not sure many people noticed. I didn’t, until I went looking:

Personal Income: +0.04% m/m.
Durable Goods: New Orders +1.53% m/m, Shipments +1.15%. Solid activity now, and projected for next month.
New Home Sales Price: +28K (+6.57% m/m); median price rose, but the number of homes sold dropped – it looks like just the expensive homes are selling now.
Auto/Light Truck Sales: +16.5% m/m; a huge recovery, which still leaves us far short of the post-pandemic highs.
GDP: +3.36% q/q, a huge move – but that’s all about inflation.

Wolf had an article talking about the “core PCE” released alongside GDP. PCE is the inflation metric with almost all the inflation removed: it rose 5.2% y/y. Wolf wonders if the Fed might raise rates by +50 bp in March. I’m thinking: “but we are at war! Can’t raise rates during wartime!” (Also: can’t change horses in mid-stream either!). Especially when you can blame inflation on You Know Who.

Even the Fed’s Lowball Inflation Measure Goes WOOSH: Fodder for 50-Basis-Point Rate Hike in March

Inflation, we might remember, is a tax on poor people who have no assets. But who will notice with a war on now?


And Now For The News That Caught My Eye

My prediction of a nomination of VP Cackles to the Supremes has proved incorrect. So far anyway!

Most Democrats want Hillary Clinton investigated for any role in Russiagate scandal: poll

Nearly three out of four of those polled who are following the story said they think it’s important prosecutors investigate Clinton for her role in the Russiagate scandal along with her top campaign advisers.

As part of the probe involving Sussmann, Durham said in a legal filing Friday that he discovered Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign paid a Web firm to spy on servers at Trump Towers and the White House to try to tie Trump to Russia.

We’re still seeing Horrible Hillary sniffing around the Oval. But my sense is, “somebody” doesn’t want her there, because that Durham investigation continues to move forward. Is it possible that the Oligarchy will allow Grandpa to serve out his term, even though Team Red is almost certainly going to take over the House, and – at least according to Bannon – impeach Gramps on the Southern Border issue?

Perhaps they are betting everything on: “Don’t change horses in mid-stream.”



Ukrainian president accuses powerful foreign leaders of ‘watching from afar’ as Russia invades

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky released a statement Friday aimed at the leaders of first world powers, who Zelensky said are “watching from afar” as Ukraine battles Russia.

If there was only some way to figure out what Putin really wanted…to bring a negotiated end to the conflict…

  • There are no U.S.-run biological weapons labs operating in Ukraine.
  • The U.S. Defense Department and the Ukraine Ministry of Health have had a partnership since 2005 to improve public health laboratories and prevent the threat of outbreaks of infectious diseases.
  • That effort is part of the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, which began in 1991 to reduce the threat of existing weapons of mass destruction programs in former Soviet Republics.

I’m grateful we have all these Oligarchy-funded fact-checkers. They are an essential part of the process of confirming the very latest conspiracy theory.


Bill Gates: Omicron did ‘a better job’ building immunity than COVID-19 vaccines

“Sadly, the virus itself, particularly, the variant called omicron, is a type of vaccine, that is, it creates both B-cell and T-cell immunity, and it’s done a better job getting out to the world population than we have with vaccines,” the Microsoft co-founder said. “That means the chance of severe disease, which is mainly associated with being elderly and having obesity or diabetes, those risks are now dramatically reduced because of that infection, exposure.”

Gates called for a quicker response “more like six months.”

And here I thought natural immunity from recovery was just a conspiracy theory. Thanks Doctor Gates!

@EdwardDowd

Let’s do more math shall we?

Assuming 60% of the planet got 💉 that’s 4.2 billion people. 3.6% of that is roughly 151 million people had a 💉 injury.

Media silence & government silence = Global Fraud.

These are injuries…we are not even talking deaths here or long term issues

Emphasis added.

Next time, Doctor Gates wants the shot-rollout to be much quicker. “More like six months.”

A National Vaccine Pass Has Quietly Rolled Out – And Red States Are Getting On Board

The second argument for adopting a digital vaccine verification system is the one swaying red-state governors: Having digital access to personal health records empowers the individual.

“This isn’t a passport,” South Carolina’s director of immunizations told Politico. “This is essentially a Covid card that people get at their convenience because it’s their record.”

“Papers, please” is becoming a reality. They reframe being forced to show papers as your “right”. What other medical conditions will Doctor Gates (later) place on this digital “health” check which you will have a “right” to show to everyone?

Anyone notice the increased buzz about HIV?  Shingles?  Reactivated HSV?  Will all these conditions be on your “health” check too?

Now is the time to say no.


Low-Meat Diets Linked to Lower Cancer Risk, Hints Study of Nearly 500,000 People 

The study: Risk of cancer in regular and low meat-eaters, fish-eaters, and vegetarians: a prospective analysis of UK Biobank participants

– low meat-eater: (HR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.96–1.00),
– fish-eater: (HR: 0.90, CI: 0.84–0.96),
– vegetarian: (HR: 0.86, CI: 0.80–0.93)

Translated: 14% reduction in cancer risk for vegetarians, 10% reduction for pescatarians.

ALT:  just imagine the cancer reduction we could see for an insect diet!

ALT-ALT: your non-insect dietary choices will appear on your digital “health” check.


Treating low vitamin D levels may help people live longer 

The Study: The Effects of Vitamin D Supplementation and 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Levels on the Risk of Myocardial Infarction and Mortality

n=20,025 propensity-score-weighted, Veterans Admin 1999-2018 with low 25-OH(D) (< 20 ng/ml), with no prior MI

median BMI = 29, median age = 57. Follow-up = 3-5 years.

Groups A (not treated): < 20 ng/ml, B (treated): 21-29 ng/ml, C (treated): >= 30 ng/ml.

MI risk:
– C vs B (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.49-0.85 P=0.002)
– C vs A (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.55-0.96 P=0.02)

All-cause mortality:
– B vs A (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.54-0.63, p < 0.01)
– C vs A (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.56-0.67, P < 0.001)

Translated: Want (27-35%) fewer heart attacks? Want to reduce your 3–5-year death risk (39-41%)? Make sure your vitamin-D level is > 20 ng/ml.

This isn’t just an association – it is a study about supplementation, which resulted in a very significant all-cause mortality benefit. CDC? VA? Kaiser Permanente?

Don’t they care about us at all?


A clarification by that German insurance company, complete with charts, on vaccine injury claims by their clients:

Looks like someone in at that insurance company decided not to be a “Good German”.

CDC? Oligarchy got your tongue? Your choice, as laid out by Malone: you can either be a defendant, or a witness.


Rise in non-Covid-19 deaths hits life insurers

Among the non-coronavirus-specific claims are deaths from heart and circulatory problems and neurological disorders, he said. “We anticipate that they will start to have less of an impact over the course of 2022, but we anticipate that we will still see at least some elevated levels through the year,” he said.

This was in the very-mainstream WSJ. Note the “non-corona-virus-specific” claims: heart, circulatory, and neurological disorders. They project it will decline in 2022.


Oh look. Fewer boosters in 2022.

“Booster near me”: only the exceptionally frightened and hypnotized are still queueing up for the Holy Shot.


One last warning from Edward Dowd over the weekend regarding SWIFT and Russian bank:

@EdwardDowd:

$SPX If this happens brace for impact. These folks will cause unintended consequences that will cause extreme volatility. This is messing with the plumbing of $.

Could the Western Oligarchy blow up the financial world by accident? Like Trudeau did in Canada when he “froze the bank accounts” of the protesters?

Or on purpose? Because – CBDC? A lead-in to a sovereign default? And – to distract away from private knowledge becoming public knowledge?

Or maybe because Bad Vlad isn’t doing what he’s told and backing off; is he refusing to give the Biden-Handlers their well-deserved “victory”?

It is impossible to say from a distance. This is a chaotic situation, and the Oligarchy are getting progressively more desperate. They are rich, they have a great deal of power and control, they have a few big hammers, and all the problems look like nails.

With the SWIFT plug pulled, the rest of this week could get exciting. My advice: watch prices; the banksters always know in advance. If prices move contrary to the news flow, that’s your clue. 

– Peak Prosperity –

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