Off The Cuff: The Soft Data & Hard Data Are At Odds
In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:
- Soft vs Hard Data
- They disagree. Which is correct?
- More Manipulation
- The central banks are not even hiding it anymore
- The Big Problem: Too Much Debt
- Don't expect the Fed to raise rates much higher from here
- The French Election
- However it unfolds, France is at a breaking point
In this week's podcast, Chris and Mish discuss the increasingly opposite stories being told by the "soft" and "hard" data. Soft indicators like consumer confidence and bullish sentiment are sky-high; while hard metrics like GDP growth, retail store closures, or auto sales tell a grim story of economic slowdown.
History shows that such a dichotomy between soft and hard data occur at turning points in the economy. And, as Mish recaps, we've seen this movie before:
Hussman reports that soft data after a lengthy expansion like we've had is mainly noise. I tend to agree with him. Market tops and bottoms tend to be points, both in the economy and the stock market -- and we are seeing the stock market today is experiencing a rounded topping affair with people remaining bullish even as it's clear the economy is sinking. We saw that happen in 2007. I think we saw that happen in 2000 as well.
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