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Higher for Longer; Hints of Panic

Original Content
41
By davefairtex
November 6, 2022

Higher for Longer; Hints of Panic

Original Content
By davefairtex on
November 6, 2022
41

The Fed, as expected, raised rates by 75 basis points (0.75%) on Wednesday. Powell’s press conference was seen as bearish – he was focused on raising rates higher, for longer, than previously. This isn’t an interpretation, Powell himself said this, as relayed by Wolf (Source – WolfStreet); “What I’m trying to do is make sure our message is clear: we think we have a ways to go. Rates have to go higher and stay higher for longer.”  Higher for longer. Pretty clear, yes?

By Friday, the chart showed what short-term rates looked like, with the Fed Funds rate in black. Perhaps the 1-year rate (4.74%) is “the forecast” where the market thinks the Fed might stop? At least for right now, anyway.

So, the Fed caused a fuss on Wednesday, but then something funny happened on Friday. Several items started rallying during Asia trading hours, and then when Payrolls hit at 08:30 Eastern (headline: +261k, expected +210k), things just went a little bit nuts.

Partly, it was about currency: the buck plunged 2.03 [-1.80%] on Friday, a huge move which launched right after the payroll release. The big red candle on the daily chart below gives you an idea of the magnitude of the move on Friday. For the week, the buck rose 0.17 [+0.15%], ending the week back below that 50 Moving Average line once more. Friday’s dollar plunge wiped out most of the gains from Monday through Thursday.

Gold also rallied strongly on Friday, up a big 45.70 [+2.80%] to 1676.60, and gold was up 31.80 for the week. Here’s another daily chart just to give you a sense of just how strong gold’s rally was on Friday. It looks like gold ran into resistance at the 50 MA. Gold appears to be trying to move back into an uptrend, although I still want to see a close above the 50. And a close above the previous high would be good too.  Gold = anti-dollar. Which is why they hate gold so very much.

Silver looked much stronger than gold, and in fact, it has looked stronger than gold for quite a while now. How can I tell? Silver’s 50 MA is roughly flat, while gold’s 50 MA is still declining. Silver is above its 50, while gold remains below. The 50 is a rough trend indicator. Silver rose 1.35 [+6.97%] on Friday, and +1.64 on the week. If silver can close above the previous (October) high that will be a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, which defines an uptrend. A close above that (green) 200 MA line would be good too.  It isn’t far away. Silver’s strong outperformance vs gold is also a bullish sign for the metals overall.

Crude also shot higher on Friday, up 4.44 [+5.04%], and +4.71 for the week. Almost all of the gains came on Friday. However unlike the other components, crude’s rally started early in the Asia trading session, and lasted for most of the day. It wasn’t driven by payrolls. Crude has been marching to the beat of its own drummer for a while now. Also, during the Federal Open Market Committee press conference gold/SPX/EUR rose, then fell, while crude pretty much just did its own thing.

Here are a couple of charts on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve; first the standard chart which shows the dramatic 12-month drawdown, a the Biden-Handler campaign contribution paid for by You and Me, which pretty much everyone knows about now. The drain is utterly irresponsible, executed by desperate WEFers, all to temporarily lower gas prices and perceived inflation heading into the midterms.

Here’s another look at the same thing, only with a “net change week/week” perspective, so you can see when most of the draining took place. The operation now appears to be drawing to a close; my claim is that it will stop on Election Day, November 8. I think the crude oil market is sniffing this out as well, at least to some degree. Everyone knows that the WEF/Biden-Handlers really don’t like low oil prices. This week saw the lowest amount of pillaging in more than six months.

Unlike the rest of the items, S&P 500 (SPX) only rallied slightly on Friday [+1.36%], and it actually fell -3.35% on the week, with most of the losses happening on “higher-for-longer-Wednesday”, with much of the drop happening after Powell’s press conference. Note that crappy debt (JNK -2.31%) also fell on the week; while it didn’t make a new low, it was definitely not a risk-on signal.

Given the lukewarm performance in equities and crappy debt on Friday, it was surprising to see a very strong rally in copper, up 0.26 [+7.57%], blowing past two prior highs and right up against a third. As with crude, the rally in copper wasn’t tied to payrolls. Copper started its ascent in Asia, and steadily moved higher all day long. Ok, that timing sounds like China. Sure enough, the South China Market Post had this article on Friday:

Zero-Covid: China ‘reopening bets’ lit up stocks amid buying frenzy in Hong Kong, Shanghai in preview to end of policy (Source – SCMP). “Stocks in Shanghai and Hong Kong are logging their best weeks since at least July 2020 amid rumours about Beijing’s zero-Covid policy…The latest talk was stoked by an unverified transcript citing former top health official about imminent changes to policy.”

As you can see below, Dr. Copper really likes the thought of the end of Zero COVID. Is it for real? Or, just a rumor that causes trading volatility? No idea. It affected copper & crude most, and to some extent gold and silver too.

Last thing: here’s a composite labor force disability chart I came up with, adding three different items: employed, unemployed, and not-in-labor-force, for both men and women, aged 16-64. Basically, this totaled up all 16-64 people who answered “yes” to the Bureau of Labor Statistics disability question – people who are either working, looking but out of a job, or not even looking. This month, men = +104,000, women = -278,000. So, 278,000 women recovered, or they … died. Or, some combination. Or, maybe it’s just a sampling error. The chart below uses a 12-point MA to smooth out these sort of bumps, so net change for this month is different due to the MA12. Over the last 20 months, this large increase in workforce disability – most likely driven by SAEs from the vaccination campaign – is at least partially why we now have a labor shortage. And, the Fed imagines interest rate increases will fix this.

To me, one interesting (horrible) part is that women appear to be…suffering measurably more disability than men are. This lines up with Naomi Wolf’s read on the Pfizer documents – women get hit much harder by the shots than the men do  (Source – Substack/Naomi Wolf). Warning: her piece is tough to read. She’s really upset, and she has reason to be. She’s a feminist, after all.  (Where are all the other alleged feminists? Crickets.) Anyhow, confirmation for Naomi Wolf using sex-disability numbers.

As long as Powell’s “higher for longer” strategy is mostly driven by the labor market (I think he’s worried about a wage-price spiral), and as long as the boosters keep getting pushed (mandated) by the gang in charge and their allies in the Greater Good Cult, the labor market will probably remain in shortage, and rates will continue to be pushed higher, and higher by the Fed. “Why isn’t the labor market responding to the higher rates??!” Well, maybe because you’ve disabled millions of people with your forced Spike-shots? Even the Fed had a vaccine mandate, back in 2021. Are they really inflicting this on their own acolytes? That won’t end well when the news finally breaks. For sure the higher-ups will want an “amnesty.”


Paul Pelosi:

San Francisco DA vows to limit public’s access to Pelosi attack evidence ‘as much as possible’  (Source – justthenews).

NBC Deletes Report With Revelations About Paul Pelosi Attack (Source – freebeacon); “Deleted segment claimed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband opened door for police, did not declare emergency” (Source – rumble/deleted-video).

Oh Boy… Jason Whitlock GOES THERE! “Nancy Pelosi Spent Her Money on Pair of Cans and All Her Husband Wants to Do Is Play Hide the Hammer” (Source – gatewaypundit); picture of “the cans” included.

Democrats plot Nancy Pelosi’s replacement in ‘secret meeting’: Report (Source – theblaze).

At least Paul Pelosi survived the hammer assault, so that’s good news. But, what lies at the bottom of this deep, dark well they are working so hard to cover up?


Domestic Politics:

I think the Republicans will win the midterms, because suddenly I am back on the A or B lists, in terms of Manhattan gala invitations, when for 2 1/2 years I was on the naughty list, if not the nonperson list, if not the quarantine camp list. (Source – gettr/NaomiWolf); a non-technical signal.

GOP Sure Bet to Win Majority in House; 20 to 30 Seat Swing Possible: Analysts (Source – epochtimes).

Liz Cheney endorsed Democrat Elissa Slotkin. New poll shows her double-digit lead has evaporated completely (Source – theblaze).

‘I’m a little concerned today’: Kari Lake emphasizes she’s not suicidal and her brakes work after Hillary Clinton states Lake should ‘never’ win (Source – theblaze); Kari Lake isn’t afraid to say anything. Could this be the new normal? Mind = blown.

Washington Post publishes op-ed calling on Biden, Harris to drop out in 2024 (Source – justthenews); “It is frightening that Biden does not know, or remember, what he recently did regarding an immensely important policy.” Washington Post (WAPO) has just now noticed. Just like the WMD in Iraq.

Is a 25th Amendment removal in Joe Biden’s future? (Source – thehill); “The time may be coming when the country will have to have a serious conversation about a very uncomfortable topic: President Biden’s mental health.” Et tu, Hill?

White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain: Biden wanted to ‘issue one final warning’ with speech on democracy (Source – fox); Klain, the de facto President, peeks out from behind the curtain and admits (obliquely) just how scared he is about being removed from power in the near term – demonstrating his fear by threatening normal Americans. Via Cutout Biden, of course.

Konnech CEO Eugene Yu’s connection to China’s National People’s Congress and Chinese telecom giants (Source – substack/kanekoa); “We hope to ride on the spring breeze of political reform and provide you with election consulting services and election campaign management in line with China’s national conditions based on our democratic election campaigns with Chinese characteristics.”

Long story short, a bunch of People’s Republic of China software engineers developed the product more than a decade ago that runs Chinese Communist Party elections, as well as some number of U.S. elections. Which, I’m sure, have no designed-in zero-day bugs at all. Like those trustworthy Huawei routers.


Globalism:

Imran Khan, Ex-Prime Minister of Pakistan, Is Shot at Rally (Source – NY Times); Turning to assassination seems like a big mistake. For them. Especially, when you miss. This isn’t the colonial era any longer.


“Health”:

Children Suddenly Dying – ‘It’s Through The Roof’ – Dr. Peter McCullough (Source – redvoicemedia); “Myocarditis deaths are due to the Covid-19 vaccines, until proven otherwise.” Cemented into my brain.

Monkeypox Still Global Health Emergency: WHO (Source – dawn); Pandemic 2.0 flopped: cases have cratered.

Pfizer’s RSV vaccine, given during pregnancy, protects infants from severe illness (Source – WAPO); Pandemic 3.0. Targeting pregnant women – again.

A stressful marriage may harm your heart health, study finds (Source – fox); Blame your wife – not the Holy Shot.

Fauci Claims Innocence on School Shutdowns: ‘I Had Nothing to Do with It’ (Source – nationalreview); the Fauci doth protest too much, methinks.

Let’s Declare a Pandemic Amnesty (Source – Atlantic); a guilty plea implicit in the request.

Amnesty-1 Cartoon (Source – gettr/Ishida).

COVID Nazi video (parody) (Source YT); must see at 3:33. Not many views; maybe that’s why it is still up.


MSM/Narrative Control:

MSNBC Host [Tiffany Cross] Axed As Network Decides To Not Renew Her Contract (Source – conservativebrief); MSM – change, or die.

Censorship and Defamation- Weapons of Control (Source – substack/malone); great (long) piece detailing the tactics in use.  None of this is an emergent property. Hybrid War.

  • cover-up – “fact-checkers”
  • devaluation – smear campaigns, reputation harm, false and disparaging claims
  • reinterpretation – censorship claimed as “protecting the public”
  • official channels – formal proceedings, delicensing, lawsuits, police searches
  • intimidation – all of the above.

Blue Checkers Revolt over Musk’s Threatened Monthly Charge (Source – Turley); $8 to be a blue-check.

BREAKING: Twitter’s content ‘curation team’ axed amid mass layoffs (Source postmillenial).

Elon Musk Leverages Tesla Engineers To Review Twitter Code In Early Stages Of Takeover (Source – carscoops); Formal code reviews (I’ve done them myself) are very effective at discovering where all the bodies are buried. Fifty engineers = maybe 2-3 weeks? Unlike people, code doesn’t lie.

Elon Musk claims Twitter execs ‘deliberately’ hid evidence on ‘fraudulent metrics’ from court (Source – postmillenial); if true, evidence of fraud opens the door to all sorts of outcomes.

EU Warns Twitter Not To Restore Free Speech Protections After Calls From Clinton and Other Democratic Leaders (Source – zerohedge); Obama/Clinton/etc sound shrill. Perhaps the WEF losing TWTR may be more important than we realize.


Paul Pelosi. There’s something there. No idea what it is, but gang in charge really doesn’t want us to find out. That’s the only reason I’m curious – anything they try to cover up, I automatically want to poke around and see what’s under all the manure. And Mrs. Cans is #3 in line, after President Teleprompter (whom they now apparently want to remove), and VP Word Salad, who is on thin ice as well.

I’m of two minds about China’s Covid-Zero. Either it’s a population-terror strategy whose goal is to impose complete mental/emotional control long term over the population, reduce economic activity, along with encouraging the property bubble pop, or the CCP has done long term studies on what Sars-cov-2 components do to (say) fertility – in mice – and the answer isn’t great (Source – mouse study). They also have access to Bat Lady Shi and all of her work, and what it was targeting. And for some reason, early treatment isn’t an option. Perhaps the CCP is just using Covid Zero to mark time until the West’s vax campaign runs out of steam? Independent of my guesses as to why – if Covid Zero ever goes away, Friday’s moves suggest that copper and crude are probably great instruments to bet on.

Domestic Politics: if a re-run of the circa-2020 cheating outcome was in the bag, we wouldn’t be hearing all the threats from the Biden-Handlers – De Facto President Klain’s appearance, waving the (metaphorical) swastika himself this week, provides a hint.  Perhaps, the Teleprompter didn’t deliver the threats as effectively as Klain had hoped? Again, if the cheating outcome was a done deal, they’d be all superior and smug and we wouldn’t see Klain at all. They do not sound smug.

Given this, my guess: both Senate and House go Red. I suspect the after-election legal tussles will be very intense. “Biden” is very unpopular, and because of that, I think the Courts will try hard not to side with him, unlike what happened in 2020. Then, things all went their way, because “Bad Orange Man!” In  2022, few like or respect Biden at all. And, the MSM is dying too. Bad Orange can’t be used as the scapegoat this time around. A lot has happened in two years. Things are not the same. So, many court cases have been ruled against the WEF/Biden-Handlers.

I also get the sense that the takeover of (Twitter) TWTR will cause big trouble down the road for the WEF. Otherwise, the EU, Obama, and Hillary Rodham Clinton wouldn’t have weighed in so heavily. And, there may be a bombshell in there too. Another fear signal.

Will they toss “Biden” out with the 25th Amendment?  Then we’d be stuck with (Vice) President Word Salad. Who would really run the place? Not Klain. The WEF probably won’t run her nearly as easily as they do President Teleprompter. And that will probably be frustrating for them. They have no great choices right now.

The assassination attempt on Imran Kahn is also a fear marker. Someone is *really* scared of him. He’s way too popular, and also likely to regain power. Could be a local kill order, could be a globalist kill order. Hard to say. Payback will be a bitch though, I suspect. I read somewhere that when you set out to kill the King it is really important that you don’t miss. They missed.
Next week should be interesting, to say the least. What comes next? Safest prediction first: we will see higher oil prices. Higher short-rates from the Fed. Low mRNA booster uptake. Election chaos. More change-or-die from MSM. Realignment at TWTR, and maybe some bombshells too. Increased attempts to avoid prosecution for various COVID crimes (Amnesty!).  And, probably, more panic markers from the WEFers, who feel things slipping away, and are desperate to remain in power.

COVID Nazis. (Source – YouTube).  While it remains up.

– Peak Prosperity –

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