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Image | Rates Higher-for-Longer; Vax U-Turn in Progress
Rates Higher-for-Longer; Vax U-Turn in Progress
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The buck rose 0.78 [+0.76%] to 103.53 this week, managing to close above the 50 moving average (MA) on Friday for the first time since the big decline began back in November 2022. My weekly DX (dollar) model isn’t quite in bullish mode just yet, but as you can see, this is the first two-week…
Rates Higher-for-Longer; Vax U-Turn in Progress
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The buck rose 0.78 [+0.76%] to 103.53 this week, managing to close above the 50 moving average (MA) on Friday for the first time since the big decline began back in November 2022. My weekly DX (dollar) model isn’t quite in bullish mode just yet, but as you can see, this is the first two-week…
Image | Fed Raises Rates +25 bp; The Safety System Works
Fed Raises Rates +25 bp; The Safety System Works
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

We had a market two-fer this week: first, Powell Press Conference Wednesday, followed two days later by Payrolls Friday. First, Powell Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by the expected 25 basis points (bp) (+0.25%). I reduce an hour of press conference down to five bullet points: We need substantially more evidence that inflation is on…
Fed Raises Rates +25 bp; The Safety System Works
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

We had a market two-fer this week: first, Powell Press Conference Wednesday, followed two days later by Payrolls Friday. First, Powell Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by the expected 25 basis points (bp) (+0.25%). I reduce an hour of press conference down to five bullet points: We need substantially more evidence that inflation is on…
Image | A Gold Divergence; Post Vaccine-War Impact Incoming
A Gold Divergence; Post Vaccine-War Impact Incoming
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

We had four economic reports this week: Personal Income (PI): +0.22% month over month (m/m) [+0.26% month over m/m prior]; Slowing, negative. Durable goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +5.33%  m/m, Shipments +0.50% m/m. Positive. Median New Home Sales Prices (MSPNHSUS): -16.9k m/m, New Home Supply: -0.2 [to 9 months]. Negative (for housing). GDP: +1.56% quarter over…
A Gold Divergence; Post Vaccine-War Impact Incoming
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

We had four economic reports this week: Personal Income (PI): +0.22% month over month (m/m) [+0.26% month over m/m prior]; Slowing, negative. Durable goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +5.33%  m/m, Shipments +0.50% m/m. Positive. Median New Home Sales Prices (MSPNHSUS): -16.9k m/m, New Home Supply: -0.2 [to 9 months]. Negative (for housing). GDP: +1.56% quarter over…
Image | A Slowing Economy; We Are Past Peak WEF
A Slowing Economy; We Are Past Peak WEF
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Signs and symptoms of recession this week: Retail Sales (RSAFS): -1.16% month over month (m/m), motor vehicles -1.62% m/m, food and beverage +0.03%. Bearish. Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.73% m/m, manufacturing -1.32% m/m. Bearish Producer Prices (PPIACO): -2.00% m/m. Bearish. Baltic Exchange Dry Index (trading economics): new 3-year low. None of this looks good. Note that…
A Slowing Economy; We Are Past Peak WEF
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Signs and symptoms of recession this week: Retail Sales (RSAFS): -1.16% month over month (m/m), motor vehicles -1.62% m/m, food and beverage +0.03%. Bearish. Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.73% m/m, manufacturing -1.32% m/m. Bearish Producer Prices (PPIACO): -2.00% m/m. Bearish. Baltic Exchange Dry Index (trading economics): new 3-year low. None of this looks good. Note that…
Image | Narrative Keepers in a Panic!
Narrative Keepers in a Panic!
by Chris Martenson

The Damar Hamlin case sent the keepers of the narrative into a panic. They pulled out all the stops as they tried, unsuccessfully, to install a bogus narrative that something called “commotio cordis” was the reason Damar collapsed during a live televised national NFL game. A more proper differential would not prematurely exclude the possibility…
Narrative Keepers in a Panic!
 by Chris Martenson

The Damar Hamlin case sent the keepers of the narrative into a panic. They pulled out all the stops as they tried, unsuccessfully, to install a bogus narrative that something called “commotio cordis” was the reason Damar collapsed during a live televised national NFL game. A more proper differential would not prematurely exclude the possibility…
Image | Mixed Data; These Are Our Stories
Mixed Data; These Are Our Stories
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There were two economic reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: +223k month over month (m/m) [prior +256k] (bullish) Durable Goods: New Orders -2.13% m/m, Shipments +0.19% m/m (bearish) My favorite section of payrolls that I use for detecting recession isn’t showing a clear signal of recession just yet; the FRED Series (LNS12032196) titled “working part-time for…
Mixed Data; These Are Our Stories
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There were two economic reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: +223k month over month (m/m) [prior +256k] (bullish) Durable Goods: New Orders -2.13% m/m, Shipments +0.19% m/m (bearish) My favorite section of payrolls that I use for detecting recession isn’t showing a clear signal of recession just yet; the FRED Series (LNS12032196) titled “working part-time for…
Image | Vimeo Files: Chris Discusses Vimeo’s Censorship of Peak Prosperity
Vimeo Files: Chris Discusses Vimeo’s Censorship of Peak Prosperity
by Ivor

Just before the Thanksgiving holidays, Chris joined the Unity Project’s CEO Laura Sextro on her Rumble podcast to discuss how Vimeo censored private Peak Prosperity videos. It’s an illuminating discussion that shows the 1st Amendment violations of Big Tech social media channels.   (Click here to sign up) Hey Folks – I just wanted to…
Vimeo Files: Chris Discusses Vimeo’s Censorship of Peak Prosperity
 by Ivor

Just before the Thanksgiving holidays, Chris joined the Unity Project’s CEO Laura Sextro on her Rumble podcast to discuss how Vimeo censored private Peak Prosperity videos. It’s an illuminating discussion that shows the 1st Amendment violations of Big Tech social media channels.   (Click here to sign up) Hey Folks – I just wanted to…
Image | 2022 Year In Review
2022 Year In Review
by Chris Martenson

2022 was a year of incredible events and developments. Too many to pick from, but let’s give it go. Among the key themes for me were: How committed the mainstream press and health authorities were to ignoring the fact that Omicron basically ended what little reason there was for calling Covid a pandemic. Censorship and…
2022 Year In Review
 by Chris Martenson

2022 was a year of incredible events and developments. Too many to pick from, but let’s give it go. Among the key themes for me were: How committed the mainstream press and health authorities were to ignoring the fact that Omicron basically ended what little reason there was for calling Covid a pandemic. Censorship and…
Image | The Curse of Seeing Things Clearly (and Caring)
The Curse of Seeing Things Clearly (and Caring)
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Sentinel intelligence is the ability (some say superpower) to detect large threats early. We’ve got that in spades here at Peak Prosperity. It is usually a curse because, as with the myth of Cassandra, people “blessed” with Sentinel Intelligence are destined to be ignored by most people while also being burdened with the trait of…
The Curse of Seeing Things Clearly (and Caring)
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Sentinel intelligence is the ability (some say superpower) to detect large threats early. We’ve got that in spades here at Peak Prosperity. It is usually a curse because, as with the myth of Cassandra, people “blessed” with Sentinel Intelligence are destined to be ignored by most people while also being burdened with the trait of…
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I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about the needs and sustainability of our family. We have six young children, our oldest just turned 12 and our youngest just turned 3 months old. I love the considerations that the article had above and thought I would add a few things that I have considered for our situation. My...
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