Home Daily Digests Recession Signals Mount; U.S. Faces Civil Strife Risk

Recession Signals Mount; U.S. Faces Civil Strife Risk

The yield curve’s un-inversion suggests economic trouble, rising political extremism threatens U.S. stability, increasing civil war risk, a CDC meeting discussed vaccine-autism links, and an FBI whistleblower alleges political bias in security clearance decisions.

The User's Profile Ivor July 6, 2024
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The yield curve, which has been inverted for over two years, is beginning to un-invert, signaling potential economic trouble ahead. This shift is occurring through a bull steepener, where short-term yields fall faster than long-term yields. Recent labor market data shows significant softening, with the 10-year treasury yield dropping from 4.48% to 4.27% in five days, and the 2-year yield falling even more sharply. This trend suggests that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon. Historically, such un-inversions often precede recessions or economic crises, a pattern consistent since the 1950s. Despite the weakening economy, the market views potential rate cuts as bullish for stocks in the short term, as evidenced by recent gains in the NASDAQ.

In a broader context, an article discusses the five major forces driving changes in domestic and world orders, focusing on the internal order-disorder cycle. The U.S. is reportedly nearing a point where citizens must choose between fighting for a side, keeping their heads down, or fleeing. The increasing extremism on both political sides threatens the rule of law and could lead to a form of civil war, not necessarily violent. The current stage of the internal order cycle is characterized by irreconcilable differences, large wealth and values gaps, and a breakdown in compromise. The risk of civil war is now considered over 50 percent, influenced by the upcoming election and potential refusal of either side to accept the results. The article emphasizes the importance of financial stability and the dangers of government bankruptcy combined with wealth gaps as leading indicators of civil war.

In health-related news, a 2001 CDC meeting called Simpsonwood discussed a potential link between the vaccination program and the rise in autism. An internal study indicated a significant increase in autism diagnoses among children who received the hepatitis B vaccine within the first 30 days of life. The meeting included representatives from the CDC, FDA, WHO, and major pharmaceutical companies. Initially, participants acknowledged the scientific evidence linking vaccines to autism, but later focused on strategies to conceal this information from the public. The speaker who published these transcriptions argues for transparency and informed consent in vaccination decisions, criticizing the government’s handling of COVID-19 vaccinations and the push for multiple boosters. He notes a significant decline in public trust in the CDC, as evidenced by the low uptake of the recommended ninth booster.

In the realm of federal law enforcement, an FBI supervisor has alleged that the bureau has been improperly suspending or revoking the security clearances of agents perceived to hold conservative political views. The whistleblower, a registered Democrat, claims that senior FBI officials targeted employees who supported Donald Trump or opposed COVID-19 vaccines, viewing them as security risks. These allegations were detailed in correspondence sent to the House and Senate Judiciary committees and DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz. The whistleblower reported that other agents shared his concerns about the misuse of political criteria in clearance decisions and faced retaliation for voicing objections. Empower Oversight, the organization representing the whistleblower, has called for an independent investigation and legislative action to address the alleged abuses in the security clearance process and protect future whistleblowers.


Yield Curve Uninverts: Is the Bull Steepener Signaling a Market Shake-Up?

“The yield curve that has been inverted for over two years now is starting to un-invert. And you guys know that when the yield curve uninverts completely, that’s usually when the stuff hits the fan.”

Source | Submitted by rhollenb

The Looming Civil War: Choose Your Side, Keep Your Head Down, or Flee

“Based on the lessons I learned from studying history about how things typically transpire under similar circumstances, I believe that what we are now seeing is the parties increasingly moving to greater extremism and a fight-to-win at all cost mode.”

Source | Submitted by rhollenb

Secret CDC Meeting in 2001 Linked Vaccines to Autism, Claims Resurface

“I published the transcriptions of a secret meeting that CDC had conducted in 2001 called Simpsonwood when they realized that, uh, that the vaccination program was linked to the epidemic of autism.”

Source | Submitted by jjauregui

FBI Whistleblower Alleges Political Bias in Security Clearance Suspensions

“If an FBI employee fit a certain profile as a political conservative, they were viewed as security concerns and unworthy to work at the FBI,” the whistleblower’s lawyer, Empower Oversight President Tristan Leavitt, wrote Horowitz in requesting an independent investigation.

Source | Submitted by Redneck Engineer

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