Off the Cuff

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish zero in on:

• Fuzzy Math
  • Why are we hearing a steady drumbeat of upbeat economic news, when looking beneath the surface into the hard data shows exactly the opposite?
• Malincentives
  
  • The US is embracing policies that favor corporations over individuals and encourages them to send their jobs and cash overseas. How did we get here?
• Greek drama
  
  • The increasingly farcical steps being taken to avoid calling this obvious default for what it is are turning the Greece rescue efforts into Kabuki theatre

Chris and Mish take out their calculators this week and try to make sense of increasingly nonsensical behavior by our governments. Warning: Regardless whether or not you’re a math person, this week’s podcast is sure to raise your blood pressure. So take an aspirin before listening.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish debate:

• B1
• B2
• B3

Click the play button below to listen to this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris (runtime 18m:35s):  

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish debate:

• Rewarding Moral Hazard
  • The President’s announced Mortgage Relief Plan has little help for underwater homeowners, lots for the banks, and none for those who where prudent
• Europe
  
  • France is weakening
• 0% Interest Rates
  
  • We are bumping up against the limit of what additional liquidity can do. And it will almost undoubtedly result in a currency crisis.

Are you one of the responsible ones who didn’t overextend yourself economically during the boom, only to watch the risk-takers rewarded with bailouts? If so, there’s lots to be irritated by this week.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish set their sights on:

• The Fed
  • 0% interest rates through 2014 (at least!). There’s not even a pretense left now about whom its policies are really directed at helping.
• Europe
  
  • In the words of Shakespeare, the latest proposals are simply “sound and fury, signifying nothing.” At this point, a deep and prolonged recession is a certainty.
• Japan
  
  • Decades of can-kicking are coming to their limit. 2012 could well be the year Japan topples into crisis.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish get things back in gear to talk about:

• Europe
  • Just went from ‘worse’ to ‘worser.’ To the tune of one trillion euros.
• Derivative Risk
  
  • Why we should be extremely concerned by the $100+ trillion in outstanding derivative contracts
• Market Exuberance
  
  • How can markets justify powering higher given such dire risks to the global economy?

It’s a new year, but Europe’s problems haven’t changed. In fact, they’re getting larger and more urgent. Greece is already in default, though no one is willing to call it that yet, and Portugal is almost certainly next. And while this should be of extreme concern to our European readers, it has a very good potential to trigger a cascading failure that could cause global markets to seize. So everyone has a stake in how this unfolds.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish kick the new year off discussing:

• Europe
  • The backstabbing begins among Eurozone members.
• Oil
  • The risk of even higher prices just got a lot worse.
• The Aftermath
  
  • What are the most probable economic outcomes at this stage?

The new year is already off to a rocky start, with protectionist squabbling in Europe and growing threats of an oil embargo with Iran. Those hoping 2012 will usher in any kind of economic recovery had better start hedging their bets.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish dig into:

• Europe
  • Developments are happening quickly after last week’s liquidity flood.
• The US
  • Will it continue to outperform in 2012?
• Forecasts for 2012
  • Which factors are most likely to influence events next year?

This is *not* your typical sleepy end to the year. Market developments are happening at a fast and furious pace, especially over in Europe. This week, Mish and Chris seek to sift through all the dust in the air and predict what is going to matter most in the coming year. It’s important to note that of what could happen in 2012, the vast majority of the probable outcomes are weighted to the downside. So make sure you’re starting off the new year with a good defensive plan in place.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish chat about:

• The ECB’s Latest Liquidity Move
  • What impact will the recent flood of hundreds of billions of euros have on the European debt crisis?
• Counterparty Risk
  • MF Global’s actions and the government’s reaction to them are eroding critical trust in the system
• Housing Prices
  • Does the recent admission by the NAR that it has been overstating housing values provide any signal that we’re getting close to a market capitulation?

This week’s theme is hidden risk. It’s everywhere. The only thing keeping the financial system together right now is people’s confidence in it. As more and more people realize that banks are being subsidized at taxpayer expense, client assets can be confiscated without notice, and the ‘experts’ guiding us have been wildly wrong for years, this critical confidence may wane to a point where there’s not enough left to keep the system from seizing.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

• Where to now?
  • There’s a whiff of deflation in the air as central banks posture and pontificate. Is this a harbinger of things to come, or a head-fake before the money printing resumes in earnest?
• Gold
  • It’s been a rough few weeks for holders of the yellow metal. Has there been any fundamental shift affecting the reasons for holding gold?

Cross-currents and volatility define the period we’re in now. For investors, vigilance and defense should be the main priorities. But, it seems we’re closer to the end of this stage than the beginning, so be positioned for action soon.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish debate:

• Rescuing Europe
  • There seems little reason to have optimism that the latest announcement of a plan to save the Continent will be any more fruitful than the many previous ones. A better question is: Can Europe be saved?
• Fuzzy numbers
  • Reports of Cyber Monday record sales and lowering unemployment are in the media. Time to break out the champagne?

The leaders of Europe are showing Herculean talent in kicking the can further down the road. The key question now is when does the road end?