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Image | More Disability & A Fix For Mass Formation?
More Disability & A Fix For Mass Formation?
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Four reports this week – payrolls, ISM, the Fed balance sheet, and total bank credit Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS): +339k, expected +190k, prior +294k.  Expansion. Unemployment (UNRATE) 3.7%, prior 3.4%, expected 3.5%.   Low, Sideways Trend. Employed Part-Time – Could Only Find Part-Time Work (LNS12032196): +7k, but in a downtrend.  Expansion. CLF 16-64, With a Disability, Men+Women…
More Disability & A Fix For Mass Formation?
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Four reports this week – payrolls, ISM, the Fed balance sheet, and total bank credit Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS): +339k, expected +190k, prior +294k.  Expansion. Unemployment (UNRATE) 3.7%, prior 3.4%, expected 3.5%.   Low, Sideways Trend. Employed Part-Time – Could Only Find Part-Time Work (LNS12032196): +7k, but in a downtrend.  Expansion. CLF 16-64, With a Disability, Men+Women…
Image | PM Correction, Rate Increase Ahead, No Reform w/o Crash & Burn
PM Correction, Rate Increase Ahead, No Reform w/o Crash & Burn
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Consumer Sentiment: 59.2, expected 58.0, previous 57.7; contractionary. Q1 GDP (2nd estimate): +0.3% q/q (+1.3% annualized), up from +0.275% (1st estimate); contractionary. Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +1.1% m/m, expected -1.1% m/m, prior +3.2%; expansionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) -20B w/w; deflationary. This week both the 1 and 10-year rates moved higher, while the 1-month…
PM Correction, Rate Increase Ahead, No Reform w/o Crash & Burn
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Consumer Sentiment: 59.2, expected 58.0, previous 57.7; contractionary. Q1 GDP (2nd estimate): +0.3% q/q (+1.3% annualized), up from +0.275% (1st estimate); contractionary. Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +1.1% m/m, expected -1.1% m/m, prior +3.2%; expansionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) -20B w/w; deflationary. This week both the 1 and 10-year rates moved higher, while the 1-month…
Image | Term Spread Predicts Recession; Confidence in Childhood Vaccines Plunges
Term Spread Predicts Recession; Confidence in Childhood Vaccines Plunges
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There were 3 reports and a balance sheet this week: Industrial Production (INDPRO): +0.48% m/m, +0.24% y/y.  Short term: recovery. Retail Sales (RSAFS): +0.42% m/m, +1.57% y/y.  Short term: recovery. Housing Starts (HOUST): +2.14% m/m, -29% y/y.  Single Family house construction has been crushed (HOUST1F), down 39% y/y, while Multifamily 5+ (HOUST5F) fell just 13%. …
Term Spread Predicts Recession; Confidence in Childhood Vaccines Plunges
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There were 3 reports and a balance sheet this week: Industrial Production (INDPRO): +0.48% m/m, +0.24% y/y.  Short term: recovery. Retail Sales (RSAFS): +0.42% m/m, +1.57% y/y.  Short term: recovery. Housing Starts (HOUST): +2.14% m/m, -29% y/y.  Single Family house construction has been crushed (HOUST1F), down 39% y/y, while Multifamily 5+ (HOUST5F) fell just 13%. …
Image | More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches
More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches
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by davefairtex

Two economic reports, and a Balance Sheet: Producer Price Index (PPIACO): +0.08% m/m, -3.08% y/y.  Deflationary. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.37% m/m, +4.72% y/y.  Inflationary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -0.01% w/w, -5.16% y/y.  Neutral. I believe that the drop in PPI y/y is explained by oil’s $45 plunge over the past 12 months.  Check out…
More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Two economic reports, and a Balance Sheet: Producer Price Index (PPIACO): +0.08% m/m, -3.08% y/y.  Deflationary. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.37% m/m, +4.72% y/y.  Inflationary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -0.01% w/w, -5.16% y/y.  Neutral. I believe that the drop in PPI y/y is explained by oil’s $45 plunge over the past 12 months.  Check out…
Image | Fed Raises +25 bp, Happy Payrolls, and Be Like Djokovic
Fed Raises +25 bp, Happy Payrolls, and Be Like Djokovic
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Two reports and a balance sheet: Payrolls: headline +253k, expected +178k; avg hourly earnings +0.5%, expected +0.3%.  Expansionary. PMI Manufacturing: 50.2, expected 50.4; weak – contractionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -58.7B w/w, previous -30.5B.  Deflationary. The Fed raised rates at this week’s meeting by 25 bp to 5.08%.  Is Powell going to raise rates again?  CME…
Fed Raises +25 bp, Happy Payrolls, and Be Like Djokovic
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Two reports and a balance sheet: Payrolls: headline +253k, expected +178k; avg hourly earnings +0.5%, expected +0.3%.  Expansionary. PMI Manufacturing: 50.2, expected 50.4; weak – contractionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -58.7B w/w, previous -30.5B.  Deflationary. The Fed raised rates at this week’s meeting by 25 bp to 5.08%.  Is Powell going to raise rates again?  CME…
Image | Recession probably here; Fed meeting next week
Recession probably here; Fed meeting next week
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There were a bunch of reports this week: Q1 2023 GDP: 0.26% q/q, expected 2.0%, +1.25% y/y.  Recessionary.  Allegedly adjusted for inflation. Durable Goods: New orders: +3.2% m/m, expected 0.9%, previous -1.2%.  Expansionary. Dallas Fed Mfg: Actual: -23.4, expected -11.5, prior -15.7.  Recessionary. New Home Sales: Actual: 683k, expected 634k, prior 640k. Consumer Sentiment: Actual:…
Recession probably here; Fed meeting next week
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There were a bunch of reports this week: Q1 2023 GDP: 0.26% q/q, expected 2.0%, +1.25% y/y.  Recessionary.  Allegedly adjusted for inflation. Durable Goods: New orders: +3.2% m/m, expected 0.9%, previous -1.2%.  Expansionary. Dallas Fed Mfg: Actual: -23.4, expected -11.5, prior -15.7.  Recessionary. New Home Sales: Actual: 683k, expected 634k, prior 640k. Consumer Sentiment: Actual:…
Image | Big drop in 1-month treasury yields; Telegraphing the crash
Big drop in 1-month treasury yields; Telegraphing the crash
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Three reports: Existing Home Sales (EXHOSLUSM495S): -2.42% m/m, but +10% y/y. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: expected -19.4, actual -31.3.  Recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -21B w/w [-0.25% w/w]. Rates this week were mostly unchanged – except for that red-circled 1-month treasury yield which plunged an incredible 95 basis points in just one week!  Money continues…
Big drop in 1-month treasury yields; Telegraphing the crash
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Three reports: Existing Home Sales (EXHOSLUSM495S): -2.42% m/m, but +10% y/y. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: expected -19.4, actual -31.3.  Recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -21B w/w [-0.25% w/w]. Rates this week were mostly unchanged – except for that red-circled 1-month treasury yield which plunged an incredible 95 basis points in just one week!  Money continues…
Image | SPR drained again; crisis = opportunity
SPR drained again; crisis = opportunity
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

This week, there were five Economic Reports, plus the Fed balance sheet: Industrial Production (INDPRO): +0.38% m/m [0.3% expected], manufacturing -0.53% m/m [-0.1% expected]. Mixed. Retail Sales (RSAFS): -0.99% m/m [-0.4% expected]; recessionary. Producer Prices (PPIACO); -0.65% m/m, deflationary.  Mostly due to energy. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.1% m/m [+0.3% expected]; non-inflationary. Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT):…
SPR drained again; crisis = opportunity
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

This week, there were five Economic Reports, plus the Fed balance sheet: Industrial Production (INDPRO): +0.38% m/m [0.3% expected], manufacturing -0.53% m/m [-0.1% expected]. Mixed. Retail Sales (RSAFS): -0.99% m/m [-0.4% expected]; recessionary. Producer Prices (PPIACO); -0.65% m/m, deflationary.  Mostly due to energy. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.1% m/m [+0.3% expected]; non-inflationary. Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT):…
Image | Overnight trading as an indicator; Eat your vaccines
Overnight trading as an indicator; Eat your vaccines
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: headline +236k [+0.15%] m/m; avg hourly earnings +0.3% m/m.  Expansionary.  Also true for my payrolls “recession detector” sub-index: “working part time/slack work” (LNS12032195): +33k, which is still at expansionary levels. ISM Manufacturing: 46.3 (expected 47.5); contractionary. ISM Services: 51.2 (expected 54.4); weakly expansionary. Factory Orders: -0.7% m/m (expected -0.4%); contractionary….
Overnight trading as an indicator; Eat your vaccines
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Reports this week: Nonfarm Payrolls: headline +236k [+0.15%] m/m; avg hourly earnings +0.3% m/m.  Expansionary.  Also true for my payrolls “recession detector” sub-index: “working part time/slack work” (LNS12032195): +33k, which is still at expansionary levels. ISM Manufacturing: 46.3 (expected 47.5); contractionary. ISM Services: 51.2 (expected 54.4); weakly expansionary. Factory Orders: -0.7% m/m (expected -0.4%); contractionary….
Image | banksters seem short-silver hesitant; vaccine is the mechanism
banksters seem short-silver hesitant; vaccine is the mechanism
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Five economic reports this week: Industrial Production: -0.02% m/m [prior +0.4% m/m]; topping out, recessionary Personal Income: +0.32% m/m [prior +0.55% m/m]; steady uptrend, increasingly inflationary Auto/Light Truck Sales: -6.57% m/m [prior +18.7% m/m]; medium-term expansionary GDP: +1.61% q/q [prior +1.88% q/q]; adjusted for (CPI) inflation: slowing-to-recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -0.32% m/m (-87 billion) [prior…
banksters seem short-silver hesitant; vaccine is the mechanism
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Five economic reports this week: Industrial Production: -0.02% m/m [prior +0.4% m/m]; topping out, recessionary Personal Income: +0.32% m/m [prior +0.55% m/m]; steady uptrend, increasingly inflationary Auto/Light Truck Sales: -6.57% m/m [prior +18.7% m/m]; medium-term expansionary GDP: +1.61% q/q [prior +1.88% q/q]; adjusted for (CPI) inflation: slowing-to-recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -0.32% m/m (-87 billion) [prior…
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