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Image | Understanding the Silver Market
Understanding the Silver Market
 PREVIEW
by Adam Taggart

[We invited David Morgan, noted silver expert and proprietor of Silver-Investor.com, to provide our enrolled members with periodic updates on silver (which is up nearly 20% from the start of the year). He begins this week with an explanation of the mechanics of how it is bought and sold, and details how the dynamics of the physical and paper markets for the metal differ. — Adam]

Revisiting the Case for Silver

src=Silver is one of the most compelling commodities to own, solely based on the industrial component and supply-demand fundamentals. Yet this isn’t the most important reason to invest in the metal; the monetary aspect is what makes it imperative, given that the fiat money house of cards could come crumbling down, bringing the entire global system to its knees. Along with gold, silver has been the preferred money of choice for thousands of years, as chosen by the market. It is not the barbarous relic that many who fail to understand honest money proclaim; rather, it possesses characteristics that the market finds the most ideal.

Understanding the Silver Market
 PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

[We invited David Morgan, noted silver expert and proprietor of Silver-Investor.com, to provide our enrolled members with periodic updates on silver (which is up nearly 20% from the start of the year). He begins this week with an explanation of the mechanics of how it is bought and sold, and details how the dynamics of the physical and paper markets for the metal differ. — Adam]

Revisiting the Case for Silver

src=Silver is one of the most compelling commodities to own, solely based on the industrial component and supply-demand fundamentals. Yet this isn’t the most important reason to invest in the metal; the monetary aspect is what makes it imperative, given that the fiat money house of cards could come crumbling down, bringing the entire global system to its knees. Along with gold, silver has been the preferred money of choice for thousands of years, as chosen by the market. It is not the barbarous relic that many who fail to understand honest money proclaim; rather, it possesses characteristics that the market finds the most ideal.

Image | The China Syndrome: A Hard Landing Coming Soon?
The China Syndrome: A Hard Landing Coming Soon?
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

style=As captivating as the drama is in Europe, and it is quite worthy of all our attention, there are more and more signs from China that its own economic troubles are mounting.

The chief concern for those in the West regards the flow, or rather recycling, of China’s reserve monies gained through their trade surplus. Those funds constitute a crucial factor that has allowed the western OECD countries to continue borrowing well beyond their means. The mechanism was simple enough: Chinese manufacturers would export their goods and receive various currencies in return. Dollars, euros, and yen would be then be exchanged for local yuan, and the People’s Bank of China would have to do something with all those foreign currencies. 

Over the past decade, what the People’s Bank of China chose to do was to use those currencies to buy foreign debt, an act which prevented the yuan from rising in value in relation to all the currencies in question. Thus the cycle could repeat and repeat again, as a low yuan encouraged higher exports and therefore higher domestic employment. Everyone was happy.

Western consumers got cheap goods. China got to keep busy. The only downside was that the West could not really afford all those goods and bought most of them on credit, resulting in debts which China now holds.

The China Syndrome: A Hard Landing Coming Soon?
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

style=As captivating as the drama is in Europe, and it is quite worthy of all our attention, there are more and more signs from China that its own economic troubles are mounting.

The chief concern for those in the West regards the flow, or rather recycling, of China’s reserve monies gained through their trade surplus. Those funds constitute a crucial factor that has allowed the western OECD countries to continue borrowing well beyond their means. The mechanism was simple enough: Chinese manufacturers would export their goods and receive various currencies in return. Dollars, euros, and yen would be then be exchanged for local yuan, and the People’s Bank of China would have to do something with all those foreign currencies. 

Over the past decade, what the People’s Bank of China chose to do was to use those currencies to buy foreign debt, an act which prevented the yuan from rising in value in relation to all the currencies in question. Thus the cycle could repeat and repeat again, as a low yuan encouraged higher exports and therefore higher domestic employment. Everyone was happy.

Western consumers got cheap goods. China got to keep busy. The only downside was that the West could not really afford all those goods and bought most of them on credit, resulting in debts which China now holds.

Image | 2011 Year in Review: Signs of an American Spring and a Fourth Turning
2011 Year in Review: Signs of an American Spring and a Fourth Turning
by Adam Taggart

[Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. Moreover, he has graciously selected CM.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but by any measure, 2011 offered an over-abundance of 'business as unusual' developments to summarize. We hope you enjoy David's colorful observations and insights, which are very much his own. — cheers, Adam]

Background

Governments gambled on a return to growth solving all the problems. That bet has failed.

—Satyajit Das—

Every December, I write a Year in Review. Last year's was posted at several sites including Chris Martenson’s [1]. What started as summaries posted for a couple dozen people accrued over 13,000 clicks in total last year. It elicited discussions with some interesting people and several podcasts, including a particularly enjoyable one with Chris [2]. Each begins with a highly personalized survey of my efforts to get through another year of investing. This is followed by a brief update of what is now a 32-year quest for a soft landing in retirement. These details may be instructive for some casual observers. I have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory since the late 1990s and have ignored the siren call for diversification. I vigilantly monitor my progress relative to standard benchmarks. The bulk of the blog describes thoughts and ideas that are on my radar. The commentary is largely stream-of-consciousness with a few selected links that might be worth a peek. Some are flagged as “must see”. Everything else can be found here [3].

 

2011 Year in Review: Signs of an American Spring and a Fourth Turning
 by Adam Taggart

[Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. Moreover, he has graciously selected CM.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but by any measure, 2011 offered an over-abundance of 'business as unusual' developments to summarize. We hope you enjoy David's colorful observations and insights, which are very much his own. — cheers, Adam]

Background

Governments gambled on a return to growth solving all the problems. That bet has failed.

—Satyajit Das—

Every December, I write a Year in Review. Last year's was posted at several sites including Chris Martenson’s [1]. What started as summaries posted for a couple dozen people accrued over 13,000 clicks in total last year. It elicited discussions with some interesting people and several podcasts, including a particularly enjoyable one with Chris [2]. Each begins with a highly personalized survey of my efforts to get through another year of investing. This is followed by a brief update of what is now a 32-year quest for a soft landing in retirement. These details may be instructive for some casual observers. I have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory since the late 1990s and have ignored the siren call for diversification. I vigilantly monitor my progress relative to standard benchmarks. The bulk of the blog describes thoughts and ideas that are on my radar. The commentary is largely stream-of-consciousness with a few selected links that might be worth a peek. Some are flagged as “must see”. Everything else can be found here [3].

 

Image | Unfixable (UPDATED)
Unfixable (UPDATED)
by Adam Taggart

Two weeks ago, Chris flew to Spain to speak at the 2012 Gold & Silver meeting in Madrid. He gave his latest, streamlined version of the Crash Course titled “Unfixable”.

GoldMoney was a sponsor of the event and recorded the presentation, which has subsequently been put onto the Internet. The wide pickup and positive reaction have been a real pleasure to see.

If you’re one of the few who has yet to run across it, here it is. Of particular note is how deftly Chris handles the Q&A segment, which starts about mid-way through.

Unfixable (UPDATED)
 by Adam Taggart

Two weeks ago, Chris flew to Spain to speak at the 2012 Gold & Silver meeting in Madrid. He gave his latest, streamlined version of the Crash Course titled “Unfixable”.

GoldMoney was a sponsor of the event and recorded the presentation, which has subsequently been put onto the Internet. The wide pickup and positive reaction have been a real pleasure to see.

If you’re one of the few who has yet to run across it, here it is. Of particular note is how deftly Chris handles the Q&A segment, which starts about mid-way through.

Image | Occupy Wall Street: What’s Really Going On
Occupy Wall Street: What’s Really Going On
by Chris Martenson

style=On Friday, October 7th, a beautiful blue-sky and warm-ish October day, I went to Zuccotti Park in NYC with Livio Sanchez (film editor) and Debby Brand (camera operator) to see firsthand what Occupy Wall Street was all about and record what we could.

What we found were people united by a sense that our national narrative is off course and that resentment over the patent unfairness of our current system is building. Perhaps the most common expression we found was that people, to varying degrees, thought that there was something systemically wrong.

Because of this widespread view of ‘everything being wrong,’ there was, naturally, no single message or thing around which everyone had gathered. Instead, the view was simply that the system being discussed — political, capitalist, economic, or monetary — was broken.

When you hold such a view, there’s really no ‘ask’ that makes sense. If the political system is irretrievably in the clutches of special interests, then voting new members into that system is perceived to be a waste of effort.

The short video below (less than four minutes) captures well what we observed:

Occupy Wall Street: What’s Really Going On
 by Chris Martenson

style=On Friday, October 7th, a beautiful blue-sky and warm-ish October day, I went to Zuccotti Park in NYC with Livio Sanchez (film editor) and Debby Brand (camera operator) to see firsthand what Occupy Wall Street was all about and record what we could.

What we found were people united by a sense that our national narrative is off course and that resentment over the patent unfairness of our current system is building. Perhaps the most common expression we found was that people, to varying degrees, thought that there was something systemically wrong.

Because of this widespread view of ‘everything being wrong,’ there was, naturally, no single message or thing around which everyone had gathered. Instead, the view was simply that the system being discussed — political, capitalist, economic, or monetary — was broken.

When you hold such a view, there’s really no ‘ask’ that makes sense. If the political system is irretrievably in the clutches of special interests, then voting new members into that system is perceived to be a waste of effort.

The short video below (less than four minutes) captures well what we observed:

Image | Gold Surging: Buy Mining Stocks? Not So Fast, Says Frank Barbera
Gold Surging: Buy Mining Stocks? Not So Fast, Says Frank Barbera
by Adam Taggart

With the astonishing recent price rise in gold, many investors are asking themselves: Is now the time to move capital into mining stocks?

Frank Barbera, respected precious metal mining stock expert and editor of the Gold Stock Technician newsletter, has a viewpoint that will likely surprise many. While extremely bullish in the longer term, Frank sees too many risks in the near term and advises smart money to wait.

He cautions:

"I’ve been watching the mining stocks since 1983, so a fair amount of time that I spent watching the group. I have a wide variety of unique technical indicators on the sector, and as I started to see the stock market topping out over the last two to three weeks, I wrote my readers a note to say the mining stocks are also very overbought. Mid-July we saw one of the second most overbought readings on the XAU in five years. And that kind of reading is a big warning, and so I’m not surprised to see them going down. The last letter I put out, I told subscribers that I thought the mining stocks could get cut in half in here, and I’m going to stick with that. I think we’re looking at a 30 to 50 percent decline over the next six months.

Gold Surging: Buy Mining Stocks? Not So Fast, Says Frank Barbera
 by Adam Taggart

With the astonishing recent price rise in gold, many investors are asking themselves: Is now the time to move capital into mining stocks?

Frank Barbera, respected precious metal mining stock expert and editor of the Gold Stock Technician newsletter, has a viewpoint that will likely surprise many. While extremely bullish in the longer term, Frank sees too many risks in the near term and advises smart money to wait.

He cautions:

"I’ve been watching the mining stocks since 1983, so a fair amount of time that I spent watching the group. I have a wide variety of unique technical indicators on the sector, and as I started to see the stock market topping out over the last two to three weeks, I wrote my readers a note to say the mining stocks are also very overbought. Mid-July we saw one of the second most overbought readings on the XAU in five years. And that kind of reading is a big warning, and so I’m not surprised to see them going down. The last letter I put out, I told subscribers that I thought the mining stocks could get cut in half in here, and I’m going to stick with that. I think we’re looking at a 30 to 50 percent decline over the next six months.

Image | David Morgan on Silver Price Manipulation, Delivery Default & Supply Shortage Risks
David Morgan on Silver Price Manipulation, Delivery Default & Supply Shortage Risks
by Adam Taggart

“I have little doubt that most of the silver that is on the SLV’s web site with a bar number is there somewhere. But what I am really concerned about is if it is hypothecated or not, meaning is there more than one owner on that same bar. And I can almost guarantee that there are multiple owners for almost every bar that they report. It does not mean that that bar does not exist.

It takes ten contracts to be a market maker.* (*See retraction and clarification in the comments below.) So I have got ten contracts, I have got fifty thousand ounces, and I ship it to my buddy who is a hedge fund manager over in Idaho. That is my silver. I have just sent it over to him on a lease. I have leased it to him. Now he has taken that silver and he has swapped it with somebody at the SLV, so they have got bars there. And he swapped for those and now those are on the exchange showing as part of the deal. So you can have a lease and a swap, so you could have two or three claims on those same bars. And that happens over and over again.

So the reason I used “purportedly” is that is the correct word. There are very few bars that are actually one-to-one correspondence that are sitting on the SLV and that is their only purpose. That is not the way banks operate. That is not the way the whole system operates. So I am not against the SLV, but I also state very clearly that if you follow what I teach, you would not want that to be considered a primary silver investment. That is a paper investment. That is not silver. That is paper. It only settles in paper. People ask whether I think there is going to be a default on the SLV. I say, how could there be? I mean, read the prospectus, they settle in cash. Think they have any trouble printing that stuff up? I haven't seen any problem with that lately.”

So cautions David Morgan, publisher of The Morgan Report on precious metals and proprietor of Silver-Investor.com. More so than perhaps any other, the silver market has been loudly and visibly accused of rampant price manipulation. And more recently, suspicion is growing that the exchanges and ETFs dedicated to trading the metal do not hold sufficient volume of it to meet their obligations. Is the silver market free and fair? Chris delves deeply into these important questions with one of the best-known silver experts.

In this interview, David explains why:

  • The silver market is definitely manipulated, though likely not as rampantly as some believe. And despite this manipulation, he believes the overall upward trend in silver (and gold) cannot be suppressed in the long run.
  • Holding physical bullion as a core part of one's precious metal portfolio is absolutely critical. Many of the bars pledged to tradable securites (ETFs, futures, etc) are assigned to multiple owners – meaning there is much less actual bullion underlying these securities than the market thinks. 
  • Why his long-term outlook for silver is so bullish. Annual industrial demand for silver continues to outstrip supply from new mining, while increasing investment demand for silver as a monetary vehicle only takes more tonnage out of the market. At some point, the market will wake up to the fact that silver is in much shorter supply than currently appreciated. At that point, the price will go much, much higher.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with David Morgan (runtime 35m:58s):

[swf file="http://media.PeakProsperity.com/audio/david-morgan-2011-07-20.mp3"]

Download/Play the Podcast
Report a Problem Playing the Podcast

Or start reading the transcript below:

David Morgan on Silver Price Manipulation, Delivery Default & Supply Shortage Risks
 by Adam Taggart

“I have little doubt that most of the silver that is on the SLV’s web site with a bar number is there somewhere. But what I am really concerned about is if it is hypothecated or not, meaning is there more than one owner on that same bar. And I can almost guarantee that there are multiple owners for almost every bar that they report. It does not mean that that bar does not exist.

It takes ten contracts to be a market maker.* (*See retraction and clarification in the comments below.) So I have got ten contracts, I have got fifty thousand ounces, and I ship it to my buddy who is a hedge fund manager over in Idaho. That is my silver. I have just sent it over to him on a lease. I have leased it to him. Now he has taken that silver and he has swapped it with somebody at the SLV, so they have got bars there. And he swapped for those and now those are on the exchange showing as part of the deal. So you can have a lease and a swap, so you could have two or three claims on those same bars. And that happens over and over again.

So the reason I used “purportedly” is that is the correct word. There are very few bars that are actually one-to-one correspondence that are sitting on the SLV and that is their only purpose. That is not the way banks operate. That is not the way the whole system operates. So I am not against the SLV, but I also state very clearly that if you follow what I teach, you would not want that to be considered a primary silver investment. That is a paper investment. That is not silver. That is paper. It only settles in paper. People ask whether I think there is going to be a default on the SLV. I say, how could there be? I mean, read the prospectus, they settle in cash. Think they have any trouble printing that stuff up? I haven't seen any problem with that lately.”

So cautions David Morgan, publisher of The Morgan Report on precious metals and proprietor of Silver-Investor.com. More so than perhaps any other, the silver market has been loudly and visibly accused of rampant price manipulation. And more recently, suspicion is growing that the exchanges and ETFs dedicated to trading the metal do not hold sufficient volume of it to meet their obligations. Is the silver market free and fair? Chris delves deeply into these important questions with one of the best-known silver experts.

In this interview, David explains why:

  • The silver market is definitely manipulated, though likely not as rampantly as some believe. And despite this manipulation, he believes the overall upward trend in silver (and gold) cannot be suppressed in the long run.
  • Holding physical bullion as a core part of one's precious metal portfolio is absolutely critical. Many of the bars pledged to tradable securites (ETFs, futures, etc) are assigned to multiple owners – meaning there is much less actual bullion underlying these securities than the market thinks. 
  • Why his long-term outlook for silver is so bullish. Annual industrial demand for silver continues to outstrip supply from new mining, while increasing investment demand for silver as a monetary vehicle only takes more tonnage out of the market. At some point, the market will wake up to the fact that silver is in much shorter supply than currently appreciated. At that point, the price will go much, much higher.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with David Morgan (runtime 35m:58s):

[swf file="http://media.PeakProsperity.com/audio/david-morgan-2011-07-20.mp3"]

Download/Play the Podcast
Report a Problem Playing the Podcast

Or start reading the transcript below:

Image | Argentina: A Case Study in How An Economy Collapses – Part 2
Argentina: A Case Study in How An Economy Collapses – Part 2
 PREVIEW
by Adam Taggart

(Part 2 of Chris’ interview with FerFAL, which focuses on smart steps an individual can take in preparation before an economic collapse, is only available to enrolled users.)
Argentina: A Case Study in How An Economy Collapses – Part 2
 PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

(Part 2 of Chris’ interview with FerFAL, which focuses on smart steps an individual can take in preparation before an economic collapse, is only available to enrolled users.)
Image | Crash Course Deep Dive on FinancialSense.com
Crash Course Deep Dive on FinancialSense.com
by Adam Taggart

This morning, FinancialSense.com released a featured interview between Chris and Jim Puplava delving into Chris’ new book The Crash Course: The Unsustainable Future of our Economy, Energy and Environment.

If you haven’t read the book yet, or if you have and are hungry for more insights into its conclusions, you’ll appreciate this conscientious and intelligent exploration.

Click the image below to listen to/download the podcast:

height=

Crash Course Deep Dive on FinancialSense.com
 by Adam Taggart

This morning, FinancialSense.com released a featured interview between Chris and Jim Puplava delving into Chris’ new book The Crash Course: The Unsustainable Future of our Economy, Energy and Environment.

If you haven’t read the book yet, or if you have and are hungry for more insights into its conclusions, you’ll appreciate this conscientious and intelligent exploration.

Click the image below to listen to/download the podcast:

height=

Image | On the Airwaves and InterTubes
On the Airwaves and InterTubes
by Adam Taggart

With the launch of the new book, Chris has been busy delivering the Three E message to a media slowly awakening to the severity of our predicament. Recent world developments (spiking silver/gold/oil/food prices, a plummeting US dollar, renewed PIIGS debt concerns, MENA unrest, and Japan’s woes, to name just a few) are sobering signals that we are far into the timeline that the Crash Course has predicted.

I thought I’d compile some of Chris’ more recent and notable media appearances for those who may not have seen them yet.

BNN

This morning, BNN – Canada’s Business News Network – aired this interview with Chris discussing the implications of the coming energy crunch (click image to launch the video):

height=

On the Airwaves and InterTubes
 by Adam Taggart

With the launch of the new book, Chris has been busy delivering the Three E message to a media slowly awakening to the severity of our predicament. Recent world developments (spiking silver/gold/oil/food prices, a plummeting US dollar, renewed PIIGS debt concerns, MENA unrest, and Japan’s woes, to name just a few) are sobering signals that we are far into the timeline that the Crash Course has predicted.

I thought I’d compile some of Chris’ more recent and notable media appearances for those who may not have seen them yet.

BNN

This morning, BNN – Canada’s Business News Network – aired this interview with Chris discussing the implications of the coming energy crunch (click image to launch the video):

height=

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