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Economy 2 Public

Payrolls, Gold Deliveries, Beginning of the Beginning

Payrolls were surprisingly strong on Friday; headline +528k, with about 250k expected. Of course, this bit of economic good news caused equities to sell off, along with gold, silver, and

davefairtex,Sunday, August 7, 2022
Economy 43 Public

Pivots, Recessions, and Covid-Zero

Two things happened in the markets this week: The Fed Pivot What’s a Recession Anyway? First, the Pivot. Which hasn’t happened, insofar as I can see, but the markets appear

davefairtex,Sunday, July 31, 2022
Economy 40 Public

Fed Meeting This Week

We have a Fed meeting Wednesday; this week, there was no material change in rate increase projection from the futures markets: a roughly 81% chance of a 75 basis point

davefairtex,Sunday, July 24, 2022
Economy 31 Public

Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills

I’ll lead again with my new focus: rate increases.  Where are we? Last week: July 27, 92%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2, 50%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase This week: July 27:

davefairtex,Sunday, July 17, 2022
Economy 31 Public

Fed Rate Increase Still on Track; Fighting to The Last Ukrainian

My focus this week: what are market expectations are for Fed rate increases, and prospects for a recession? Futures markets predictions for Fed rate increases located here. Last week: •

davefairtex,Monday, July 11, 2022
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